Mark Zuckerberg from Meta suggested acquiring Kalshi, although no formal discussions have started yet.

Recently, rumors have been circulating that Meta Platforms is working on creating its own prediction market platform. Under the direction of the company’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, the teams involved have been tasked with developing a platform similar to Kalshi or Polymarket, but with its own distinctive features.

NPR has reported that Meta Platforms made an attempt to acquire Kalshi, probably the biggest player in the prediction market sector both in the U.S. and internationally. However, discussions between Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Kalshi's co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour remained at a preliminary stage. Meta Platforms has explored similar ventures before, with Zuckerberg entertaining the idea in 2020 through a concept called Forecast but eventually discontinuing it after a few years. It wasn't until 2024 that prediction markets really gained traction, with Kalshi successfully defending its right to offer political prediction markets in court, despite increasing skepticism among Americans. There are various opinions on why Meta failed to purchase Kalshi. One possible reason could be Zuckerberg's vision for a distinct prediction platform. Interestingly, Meta Platforms' forthcoming prediction market platform will feature a video game-like point system, replacing traditional cash payouts for trades. This approach might reduce some of the legal challenges Kalshi faces, such as the recent case in Michigan where a judge ordered a temporary suspension of its event contracts. This difference could have caused a divide in talks, with Zuckerberg troubled by the cash-based model, while Mansour, whose company is actively engaged in legal battles with several states, insisted it was the right path forward.

Mansour may not have been ready to sell his venture at that time, and there's no sign that this has changed. Meta is now set to try reviving a spiritual successor to Forecast, but whether it will resonate with audiences remains uncertain. With billions of users, substantial resources, and a willingness to take bold risks on projects that might not succeed, Meta is well-positioned to shake up the prediction market space. Meanwhile, Kalshi might be on track to reaching a $40 billion valuation soon.