NFL urges prediction markets to refrain from offering trades on "predictable" events

The NFL has become the latest top-tier sports organizaiton in the United States to urge the prediction markets sector to refrain from offering trades on events that can be easily manipulated or predicted.

Specifically, the NFL has expressed concerns over trades that involve what announcers would say during broadcasts or what celebrities would attend important league events, such as the upcoming NFL Draft. The league notably takes issue with events that it believes can be easily manipulated or determined in advance, with the NFL urging compliance in order to protect game participants from unfair and unwanted allegations. Specifically, the NFL would prefer for platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to refrain from offering trades on specific sports-related events that could be, in theory, manipulated by a single person. Among the list of suggested trades that need to fall under this category are draft picks, player signings, coach firings, missed field goals, and anything inherently objectionable, the league said in its letter on Sunday. Polymarket has stated ESPN at the time of writing, saying that it welcomed the opportunity to collaborate with the NFL on protecting the integrity of sports. The Sunday letter comes in the wake of discussions between the league and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is currently the federal regulator that oversees the prediction market sector. The CFTC has been actively involved in helping sports leagues crack down on manipulation that could happen through prediction markets, with the CFTC and Major League Baseball agreeing to share data and thus help minimize the instances of such fraud taking place.

Both the NFL and MLB have been embroiled in high-profile scandals involving professional athletes allegedly breaking anti-gambling rules. Prediction markets pose a brand new threat, however, as there are persistent fears that insiders can manipulate them easily. Polymarket and Kalshi have already been refusing payouts on certain markets and to certain accounts that appear manipulated. In the meantime, the National Collegiate Athletic Association has urged prediction markets to stop using its trademarked intellectual property, referring to wording related to the March Madness contest. A similar request by the association against DraftKings has recently been shot down in court.