A Polymarket user is betting nearly $500K that Putin will be gone by 2027.

Polymarket has emerged as a kind of geopolitical barometer, frequently drawing in anonymous bettors placing wagers on significant global events. Earlier this year, after high-stakes bets on events in Venezuela and Iran, an anonymous user has placed nearly $500,000—around $490,177—on predicting that Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, will no longer be in power by the year's end.

The wager takes place while the war in Ukraine lingers, with Kyiv intensifying pressure on Russia to bring it to the negotiation table. Ukrainian forces have significantly increased the human and logistical toll on Moscow's offensive by targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, pushing parts of the sector to the brink, as shown by widespread fuel shortages and miles-long queues at gas stations. In response, Russia has launched attacks on civilian infrastructure and started importing gasoline from at least two countries to lessen the immediate effects of what Kyiv refers to as its version of kinetic sanctions. Despite Russia's near-total Internet blackout, public discontent is growing, with social media videos revealing the frustration over fuel shortages continuing to emerge online. The bettor, an anonymous account called ZnotluvuiSamez, purchased 3,658,041 shares betting Yes on the question, Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

The market is aligned with the 2026 Russian legislative election, which may pose the toughest challenge the ruling party has ever encountered. Polymarket has clarified its criteria for successfully resolving this market, as they've previously scrutinized the specifics of geopolitical events: If Vladimir Putin's resignation or removal is announced before the market's end date, it will immediately be resolved to ‘Yes,’ regardless of when the resignation or removal takes effect. Should the individual be detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently unable to fulfill the role within this market's timeframe, it will also result in a ‘Yes’ resolution. If Putin leaves the Presidency or is removed by any means, ZnotluvuiSamez stands to gain $3.65 million. This account has also placed bets on outcomes like Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 with a Yes, suggesting the user is banking on Russia's efforts in Ukraine eventually failing by the end of the year—an outlook that could alarm Kremlin insiders. Meanwhile, ZnotluvuiSamez is reporting a trading loss of $43,511.