"Germany eliminated from World Cup as Paraguay defies 90% chance of defeat"

This was absolutely unbelievable, and if you're a German soccer fan, it probably feels mind-boggling. It's tough to grasp the reality of the situation right now, as Paraguay exits the 2026 FIFA World Cup's Round of 32 following a gripping match. La Albirroja took an early lead, but the Europeans caught up in the second half, and a dramatic disallowed goal in the 106th minute led to a penalty shootout.

Paraguay clinched victory in a nail-biting penalty shootout with a 4-3 score, following a 1-1 draw in regular time. This match will be remembered as one of the most shocking upsets in World Cup history. Germany was the heavy favorite going into the game, with an 88.57% implied probability from sportsbooks, compared to Paraguay's 14.39%. The figures exceed 100% to account for the bookmakers' 2.96% margin. It was unimaginable that Germany, multiple-time World Cup champions, would fall to Paraguay, ranked 41st by FIFA before this historic win, which moved them up to 34th. The outcome was a surprising turn of events that few saw coming. Paraguay and Germany were evenly matched throughout the game. Even with Germany setting the pace, Paraguay's defense held firm without giving in. Then, as the first half was nearing its close, Paraguay executed a successful attack, with J. Enciso scoring in the 42nd minute to take the lead against Germany.

The team quickly regrouped to catch up with K. Havertz, leveling the score at the 54th minute. From that moment, time seemed to be on Germany's side as they dominated with 75% ball possession, bombarding Paraguay’s goalie with 7 shots on target and 21 shots in total. For the following half hour, Germany kept up the pressure, forcing Paraguay into almost constant defense. To most spectators, it seemed inevitable that one of Germany’s attempts would eventually find success. And indeed, it happened. Unfortunately, in the 106th minute, J. Tah's goal was disallowed after a VAR review. Tah later missed his penalty shot, while J. Canale successfully scored for Paraguay, securing the final score at 4-3.