"Prediction markets, new financial regulations in the UK, and illegal gambling in Australia"

Prediction markets have been at the center of numerous regulatory changes, with Europe struggling against illegal gambling and the UK advancing with financial checks. The UK's Gambling Commission has detailed the steps it will take to implement its Financial Risk Assessment procedures for all licensed operators. This multi-phased approach aims to gradually introduce customers and operators to the new FRA landscape, fostering an environment where both can thrive without friction. The Gambling Commission highlighted that these checks would impact only a small percentage of players, representing a significant improvement over existing player protection guidelines. Initially, the commission will focus on providing guidance rather than imposing penalties for potential breaches, aiming to ensure the process starts smoothly and leads to long-term success. Meanwhile, New Jersey has proposed a 9% tax on prediction markets as it continues to grapple with the sector while also moving to tax its operations. Although a bill has not yet been finalized and signed by Gov. Mikkie Sherrill, signs strongly suggest this may happen soon. Prediction markets remain cautious about such proposals, arguing they should be regulated only by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission and not subject to local and state regulatory pressures on their models.

In 2025, Europe's illegal online gambling market has shockingly exceeded €90 billion, marking a year-over-year growth of more than 10%. According to the European Casino Association and Gambling Compliance International, this issue has at least two major consequences. The expansion of the black market not only harms consumers but also affects government finances, as states miss out on collecting significant tax revenue. Researchers estimate this loss at €23 billion, all while dealing with the societal impacts of gambling.

Australia is making significant strides to reduce gambling-related harm from offshore and illegal operators. The country's regulators are actively tackling issues in this sector through a comprehensive approach. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has targeted Jamie Mullarkey, a well-known mixed martial arts fighter, for promoting offshore gambling services. Mullarkey promptly complied with investigators and removed a sponsored social media post he had made for such an operator. Meanwhile, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has initiated a new task force aimed at shutting down scam online casinos. These casinos are not only illegal but also intentionally malicious, designed to attract paying customers, disrupt their gaming experience, and withhold their funds. Throughout 2025, millions of dollars have been lost to these scams, prompting a more robust response from regulators as the fraudsters become increasingly audacious. In North Carolina, a new budget has been approved that imposes a 6% tax on prediction markets, specifically targeting transaction fees. Governor Josh Stein's decision goes further by officially legalizing prediction markets in the state. According to the budget, prediction markets licensed by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission are permitted to operate their business model within North Carolina.

Recent research highlights a striking imbalance in the U.S. gambling industry's spending, with investments in celebrity and athlete endorsements being eight times larger than the funds allocated for responsible gambling and communications. This data is detailed in the 5W Responsible Gambling Communications Audit 2026, conducted by the 5W Research Division, an AI communications leader. Essentially, gambling businesses in the United States are prioritizing endorsement spending at a rate of 8 to 1 compared to their focus on responsible gambling initiatives. Ohio is exploring ways to re-regulate its gambling sector to enhance consumer protections while ensuring operators can still prosper without compromising the safety of at-risk players. The state, including the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC), is moving closer to implementing a new policy that would ban the use of credit cards for sports gambling, according to a spokesperson. Meanwhile, the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has diverged from the National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) over its decision to admit Kalshi, a prediction market platform. The MGCB has criticized Kalshi for alleged gaming law violations and believes Kalshi's membership undermines efforts by the NCPG to mitigate gambling-related harm. Additionally, Kalshi has openly contested the classification of its product as gambling, adding to the controversy.