US soldier arrested over Polymarket bet on Venezuelan operation

Insiders have long been accused of profiting from their knowledge by placing trades on Polymarket, and critics of how suspicious trades were placed on the popular platform to coincide with the US military operation resulting in the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela may feel vindicated.

The US Department of Justice (DoJ) has been able to identify one person related to the incident, indicting him on charges that he unlawfully used confidential government information for personal gain. Gannon Key Van Dyke is alleged to have used his position for theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction, as per the DoJ’s press release. The soldier is charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act and faces a 10-year prison term on each. He may also face up to 20 years for the wire fraud count, and yet another 10 years for the unlawful monetary transaction charge, bringing the total maximum sentence to 60 years behind bars. Van Dyke was one of the people involved in the execution of the US intervention called Operation Absolute Resolve, which saw President Maduro brought to the United States overnight. The soldier is alleged to have abused his position to place a trade on Polymarket and thus enrich himself by more than $400,000. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has issued a statement in which he lambasted the practice of using insider information to potentially endanger military personnel. Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain. Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply, Blanche said. Before his indictment, Van Dyke was still an active-duty soldier and stationed at Fort Bragg. According to FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr., the soldier has earned a six-figure payout because of his position within the US Army. He placed multiple trades on Venezuela-related outcomes using the popular multi-billion-dollar platform, resulting in $409,881, following the events on January 3, 2026. US Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York has been similarly critical of the misappropriation of confidential or classified information for personal gain.

Clayton said that prediction markets are not a haven for the abuse of such privileged information, while FBI Director Kash Patel assured the public that his agency would do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and the nation’s secrets. Van Dyke allegedly attempted to conceal his identity after the trades drew attention. On January 6, 2026, he contacted Polymarket requesting that his account be deleted, falsely claiming he had lost access to the associated email. The same day, he changed the email linked to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an address he had created earlier that was not in his name. After withdrawing the majority of his proceeds from Polymarket on the day of the operation, he allegedly transferred most of the funds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault.